According to the information released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the first half of this year, the central parity rate of THE RMB against the US dollar generally experienced a trend of first appreciation, then depreciation and then appreciation, among which the appreciation reached the highest point in the first half of the year on January 21, the depreciation reached the lowest point in the first half of the year on May 29, and then came out of a small upward trend.Overall, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated by 1.48 percent from 2019 to June 30 this year.From the perspective of exchange rate flexibility, the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate between the highest point and the lowest point in the first half of this year is 4.4%, and the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate is relatively stable.Recently, the two-way fluctuation trend of RMB exchange rate is more obvious.
The change of currency exchange rate is characterized by economy and politics, reflects the current situation of domestic and foreign economic development, and can also become one of the indicators of adjustment of international economic relations.The change of RMB exchange rate in the first half of this year was mainly influenced by three factors: first, the epidemic situation in China at the beginning of the year affected market expectations, causing the depreciation and exchange rate shock of RMB;Second, the spread of coVID-19 overseas has impacted China’s foreign trade and other fields, resulting in the decrease of income under the regular account and the depreciation of RMB.Third, the United States in March to “cut interest rates to zero + unlimited quantitative easing” the big move intensified the panic in the international financial market, the exchange rate market shock.
After entering July, the RMB generally showed appreciation trend.Since July 10, the psychological barrier of “7″ has been broken for several consecutive days. On July 22, the central parity rate of RMB against THE US dollar reached 6.9718, rising to the highest level since the second half of the year.As foreign trade companies, because this year COVID – 19 outbreak caused a serious recession of world economy, in the face of the has been reduced orders, tight external demand, the impact of multiple factors such as supply chain is blocked, in the second half of the trend of the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, must pay attention to the international market exchange rate changes next’s impact on the development of foreign trade business and deal with in a timely manner.
Exchange rate is of great significance as an economic lever for macroeconomic control in the development of national economy.Under normal circumstances, RMB appreciation has the advantages of attracting foreign investment and relieving the pressure of foreign debt, which can effectively promote the solution of domestic employment problem and possibly promote the growth of domestic production and consumption.Despite the severe impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, China’s economy has picked up step by step and is in good shape after all-out efforts to contain and control the epidemic.However, due to the aggravation of the epidemic in the United States, the severe economic and employment recession, the overall economic weakness of other major economies, the overgrowth and accelerated depreciation trend of the US dollar, the recovery of China’s domestic capital market, and the accelerated inflow of foreign capital into China, the combination of multiple factors has pushed the RMB exchange rate out of the appreciation trend.In the context of the impact of the epidemic on global and international trade, which has already shown a severe contraction, the appreciation trend of RMB in the second half of the year will have a greater impact on foreign trade enterprises.
To some extent, the appreciation of RMB will weaken the price competitiveness of export products and restrain the export of products.The particularity of the epidemic as well as the different economic conditions and macroeconomic policies of various countries make the current foreign exchange market in a relatively sensitive period, so the trend of foreign exchange in the second half of the year will also be more complex.From the trade point of view, only to find a balance between the RMB and the US dollar exchange rate, imports and exports can bring good.It is hoped that the RMB will not continue to appreciate significantly and the fluctuation range can be controlled around the 7 threshold, which will help foreign trade enterprises to cope with it properly.
For labor-intensive products and low value-added products export-oriented small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprise, due to lower their profit margins, weak anti-risk ability, the influence of the appreciation of the renminbi is more direct and obvious, especially in the already affected by outbreaks severely impact the background, the foreign trade enterprises must strengthen the risk assessments, is good at using financial tools, conceive ahead of time, dissolve the risk of currency fluctuations.By locking the exchange rate, after the product is exported, the forward settlement and sale agreement is immediately signed with the bank, and the forward exchange, hedging and other financial instruments provided by the bank are used for hedging.Foreign trade enterprises can also invest in foreign government bonds, funds, foreign exchange and other financial products through the financial products of Banks, and use foreign exchange trading, structured deposits, forward interest rate agreements and other financial instruments to hedge their risks and maintain their value.In addition, it is also a good choice to deal with exchange rate risks by making good use of international financing products, such as foreign exchange trade, export bill financing, export credit insurance financing and Forfaiting, etc.